GOP Endorsements

ILLUSTRATED: Congressional Republicans are in a pickle

While I don't have the polling research to back this up, my intuition tells me that a disproportionately large amount of Romney's support comes from Republicans in blue places. Therefore, most GOP Republicans have a base that is very anti-Romney. Yet, most must feel that he is the only realistic GOP president right now.

What Obama's 2012 message ought to be

ILLUSTRATED: Use Obama's life story to focus on CHOICE and ACCESS
Mitt Romney and I came from different backgrounds, but we both had a shot at Harvard Law School. Upon graduation, Mitt went into business consulting and private equity, which is fine. I went into community organizing and civil rights law. The point is, upon graduation, we could make an economic choice. Everybody, needs capitalists, and everybody, including Mitt Romney, needs community builders. We have the resources in America to give young people of few means, a shot at a great education, and the choice to pursue their dreams. That means better schools, and less debt burden. I worked to solve both in my first four years....

The Kitchen Table analogy for the Debt Ceiling

You are at the kitchen table reading through your bills. Your credit card bills and utility bills are due tomorrow. Your banker will give you a loan today. What do you do?
Of course you will take the loan. It is the least bad option for your credit situation.
-Even if the vote comes close to the deadline, tens of billions will be lost hedging bets.
-The long term deficits for the future will go up, since interest rates on Treasury notes will go up.
-People's savings will be hurt.

This (should be) a slam dunk case for the Democrats to make. When Wall Street and Main Street have aligned interests, I think that's a political winner.

Memo to Democrats

ILLUSTRATED: The path onward and upward.

TO: National Democrats
RE: The way forward

The storm has passed. Last night was our worst night, and it was and will be their best night for some time.

1. The biggest political fight in the next 18 months will be within the GOP. Thus any generic polling before the spring of 2012 is worthless.

2. The Great Lakes region is where Obama and Biden need to spend their time doing town halls explaining the benefits of their programs. We also need to recruit solid House candidates. That is the key region we need to swing back.

3. The West Coast and Northeast held. This was not a wipe out.

4. California passed some very far reaching political reforms and kept its energy policy. Recruit good candidates there to capitalize politically on the rebirth there.

And the Democrats' Message for the fall of 2010 is....

ILLUSTRATED: The global economy is treacherous, and the Democrats are working to protect families and support small businesses.

The economy is the central issue, and it goes to the central truth about the economy. There is a huge global arbitrage with the factors of economic produciton (labor, property/platforms, capital). This means that these factors of productions are so transient and virtual that their prices are evening out around the globe. It is causing people to lose their jobs, and thus their homes and credit. People need health care, extended unemployment benefits, and technical education.

There is also a market failure with Wall Street overlooking small businesses (which create most new jobs).

Lastly, this narrative puts the Democrats' accomplishments into context.

The O'Donnell win isn't that surprising when you think about it

ILLUSTRATED: American communities are becoming unhinged. Voters usually vote for the candidate who personifies the zeitgeist of that election year. Hence, 2010 is a politically tumultuous year.

It's a simple truth about elections: candidates win who personify public opinion at the time of their election. This morning it was announced that August, 2010 had a record number of home foreclosures, with more in the pipeline. As families lose their homes, consumers lose their credit, workers lose their employability, and neighborhoods lose their old demographic character, strange things will continue to happen at the ballot box.

Economically solvent households are the building blocks of communities. As this foundation is crumbling, the political landscape becomes fertile for candidates who channel voters' frustrations and fear of the future.

The political class is "shocked" by the "upset" win of archconservative Christine O'Donnell in the Delaware Republican Senate Primary. She defeated a long term, popular moderate Republican who was expected to cruise to victory in November. A struggling woman who speaks in ideologically clear statements, she is resonating with voters right now. Even though her worldview and policies do not normally vibe with Delaware.

These are not normal times. Democrats need a message that addresses this.

Jobs

ILLUSTRATED: The Democrats need to incentivize job retention within our borders, as well as raising our workforce to meet those jobs.

Andy Grove, the Hungarian-born boss of Intel, has written an excellent article about the importance of keeping manufacturing jobs in the tech sector. He attacks the popular thesis that growth comes from a few geniuses in Palo Alto cafes. Who then get the money to start a company, and then export the manufacturing jobs to Asia. Grove says that innovation does not only come from a handful of Stanford grads. Innovation and business intelligence comes from the workers, suppliers, and distributors in throughout the tech "ecosystem." If the ecosystem is domestic, then the institutional knowledge and relationships upon which business depends will be here in the U.S.A.

Additionally, the same day that frustrating jobs numbers came out, the NY Times published an article about how many jobs there are that cannot be filled due to a lack of talent among the unemployed.

The solution to the skills problem is training, and it is not coming from the belt-tightening private sector. As for retaining the manufacturing jobs derived from the engineering breakthroughs, the Democrats need to be unabashed about keeping jobs in the country, not just conceptually pursuing "growth."

A Black Pelican Event

ILLUSTRATED: The Gulf of Mexico oil spill displays the need for federal regulation, and access to civil justice.

At this writing, the Gulf of Mexico is being polluted by an errant oil drilling operation. It is now considered the worst oil spill in American history. It also exposes the soft underbelly of three major conservative talking points: Corporatist Economics, Tort Reform, and "States' Rights."

Corporatist Economics- The notion that unregulated commerce produces the best economic output is being put to the test. The fishing industry is paralyzed in the Gulf, sending large numbers of people into government unemployment lines, and it means higher prices for consumers. The tourism economy will be badly hurt since beaches will be slimed, and recreational boating will go down. Regulations exist for a reason, they protect consumers, the environment, and other businesses from the excessive activities on one business. This spill was deemed so unlikely that it would have been considered what Nassim Nicholas Taleb called a black swan event. A major event with a small probability that it does not fit into a business model. Big businesses are able to lobby for a bailout. I call this a black pelican event for the heartbreaking images from the Gulf Coast.

Tort Reform- Civil justice means that any person can hold someone else accountable in a court of law. To conservatives, "tort reform" means impeding this ability in the name of efficient commerce. Don't think that if a commoner doesn't pay their bills or cheats the system that the big company won't sue them. Tort reform stigmatizes the little guy suing the establishment. This breach of duty in the Gulf by British Petroleum and its subsidiary is so devastating to so many people that it will become clear that Republican efforts to cap damages and limit access to federal court* is not just.

State Power- Conservatives want drilling allowed by states. At this writing, there is speculation that the oil spill could hit Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, swing around the Florida Keys and hit Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. That is just within the United States. To have one state government regulate this, and to have defendants accountable in federal courts in only that state is absurd. No state has the capacity to handle this spill and the interests of several states are affected.

* For a nerdy discussion on civil legal procedure there are state courthouses in every county. They are more populist with elected judges, and sometimes wild jury awards. Therefore conservatives like to limit exposure of companies to federal courts that can be more closely regulated. There are a few federal courthouses in each state, and they are administratively harder to get into.